Sports Rating Algorithm Predicts FIFA World Cup 2022 Final Stages

7 Dec 2022

Quintessa mathematicians and scientists enjoy analysing numbers. Over the last few months, Simon Rookyard and Jodie Stone have further enhanced Quintessa’s algorithm for sports team rating and result prediction that was used to predict results for the UEFA Euro 2020 competition. It will be put through its paces during the upcoming FIFA World Cup - Qatar 2022.

It's crunch time! Having already used our "N-Estimates" algorithm to predict both the group and Last-16 stages of the FIFA World Cup - Qatar 2022, N-Estimates is now being put to the test for the final stages of the competition! The team’s ratings have been updated and our final predictions can commence - the plots can be found below. (These will be updated as the final stages of the World Cup progress.)

The prediction plots indicate the likelihood levels of various possible results. The x- and y- axes represent potential numbers of goals scored by each team. The team on the x-axis wins if the predicted scoreline is below the blue dashed line and the y-axis team wins when above. (A predicted scoreline on the blue dashed line is hence a draw.)

The colour of the plotted points denotes the probability of each given scoreline. This is scaled with a high probability plotted in orange and a low probability in blue. The plotted scoreline embellished with a cross denotes the most likely result. The solid orange line represents the most likely difference in performance between the teams during the match, expressed as a goal difference. (As this is based on non-integer mean ratings for the two teams, it is not necessarily an integer value.) The 1σ uncertainty range for this predicted goal difference is given by the two dashed orange lines.

FIFA World Cup Quarter-Finals

Will Portugal do as well as expected? Will the other teams be fighting it out in penalties!?

December 09 2022, Netherlands vs. Argentina. Central normal time prediction: 0 - 0. Confidence range for goal difference (Netherlands minus Argentina): 0 to 1. — Figure 1: Predictions for the quarter-finals. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero. For games predicted to end in a draw after 90 minutes, the team predicted to win after extra time (and penalties if necessary) is indicated by an asterisk after their name.

December 09 2022, Croatia vs. Brazil. Central normal time prediction: 0 - 0. Confidence range for goal difference (Croatia minus Brazil): -1 to 0. — Figure 1: Predictions for the quarter-finals. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero. For games predicted to end in a draw after 90 minutes, the team predicted to win after extra time (and penalties if necessary) is indicated by an asterisk after their name.

FIFA World Cup Semi-Finals

December 13 2022, Argentina vs. Croatia. Central normal time prediction: 0 - 0. Confidence range for goal difference (Argentina minus Croatia): -1 to 1. — Figure 2: Predictions for the semi-finals. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero. For games predicted to end in a draw after 90 minutes, the team predicted to win after extra time (and penalties if necessary) is indicated by an asterisk after their name.

December 14 2022, France vs. Morocco. Central normal time prediction: 1 - 0. Confidence range for goal difference (France minus Morocco): 0 to 2. — Figure 2: Predictions for the semi-finals. For each plot, the circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero. For games predicted to end in a draw after 90 minutes, the team predicted to win after extra time (and penalties if necessary) is indicated by an asterisk after their name.

FIFA World Cup Final (and 3rd Place Play Off)

The margins are very tight, but the algorithm is predicting a tournament win for Argentina!

December 18 2022, Argentina vs. France. Central normal time prediction: 1 - 1. Confidence range for goal difference (Argentina minus France): 0 to 1. — Figure 3: Prediction for the final. The circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero. This match is predicted to end in a draw after 90 minutes, and an asterisk has been added to Argentina to indicate that they are predicted to win after extra time (and penalties if necessary).

December 17 2022, Croatia vs. Morocco. Central normal time prediction: 1 - 0. Confidence range for goal difference (Croatia minus Morocco): 0 to 3. — Figure 4: Prediction for the 3rd place play off. The circles represent possible final scores after 90 minutes, with the number of goals scored by each team plotted on the axes. Each circle has been colour coded to indicate the probability of that result occurring, with the most likely outcome marked with a black cross. The solid and dashed orange lines represent the mean and 1σ uncertainty range respectively for the predicted goal difference, and the dashed blue lines indicate a goal difference of zero.

After its initial publication, this article has been updated to add extra predictions as follows:

12 Dec, 2022: Argentina vs Croatia, France vs Morocco.
16 Dec 2022: Croatia vs Morocco, Argentina vs France. Corrected shortly after initial publication to state that the tournament is predicted to be won, marginally, by Argentina, not France.

Quintessa is not affiliated in any way with FIFA. Its application of the N-estimates algorithm to the FIFA World Cup 2022 competition is an independent and non-commercial endeavour.